US is Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise in World

Global Climate Chage (GCC), whether anthropogenic or not, is proving to be a major force that is producing tangible changes in the world all around us. The severe drought occurring across Southern California and Super Storm Sandy are but a few of the possible natural disturbances that will continue to plague the earth.  Another major concern about GCC is Sea Level Rise (SLR), and how it may be speeding natural coastal erosion.

SLR is a special topic to me and my beach-front, bluff-top community of Isla Vista. I would hate to see IV fall into the sea well before it's time, but increasing SLR and more forceful storms may do just that. A state study shows that, in 2002, 72% of California's beachfront was actively eroding. The California Coastal Commission has stated that typical retreat rates can reach 42cm/year, although some areas can be much worse; Point Ano Nuevo erodes at 9ft/year. Some sources indicate that local Goleta Beach has been eroding at an incredible 20ft/year, and there has been a community dispute about whether to save the beach or the Goleta Beach Park (because you definitely can't have both!).

A precariously placed home overhanging the eroded cliff in Isla Vista, Credit

For all of these reasons, I was pleased to see that a new scientific report was published by the open access Journal of Environmental Protection (Volume 5, Number 12) on the topic of Sea Level Rise.

This article, entitled Empirical Assessment of Coastal Environmental Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise and authored by Martin Lee Collin and Abraham J. Melloul, postulates that SLR will destroy unique coastal ecosystems around the globe. Their study aims to assess the vulnerabilities of the world's coasts to SLR. They also focus their study on natural and anthropogenic causes for SLR that might further risk coastline. These variables include vegetative cover, waves, and tides, as well as population growth rate, GDP, and urbanization.

Through a careful consideration and selection of natural and human parameters (Section 2.1) and precise calculations of combinations of variables in regards to each of the six selected global coastlines (Section 2.2), Collin and Melloul were able to rank those six in order of vulnerability to SLR. The countries included in this study are: Israel, Iceland, Australia, India, China, and the USA. Except for Israel, the South-eastern coastline was always examined.

Taken from Empirical Assesment by M.L. Collin and A.J. Melloul, Page 1209

Collin and Melloul discovered that the South-eastern coast of the USA is the most vulnerable to SLR of all of the six global coasts studied. The USA is distantly followed by China, India, and Australia.

These results prompt the authors to suggest a prioritization of those coastlines most highly impacted, including cities like New York, Boston, and Miami. Reducing SLR in these areas is a daunting task, but Collin and Melloul suggest nine coastal management measures that may help to recognize and manage SLR. These suggestions include:

• "Special attention ought to be paid to preclude and reverse the annihilation of coastal wetlands, forests, and other protective vegetation parameters that significantly influence the enhancement of SLR’s effect upon the coastal environment.
• As numerical assessments involved would be relative and qualitative rather than quantitative; resultant models should be subsequently calibrated by in situ data, as was the case with the vulnerability mapping of Israel and such subsequent data-acquisition programs as POLLSITE [82].
• High-resolution shoreline mapping and surveillance of coastal areas having steep slopes with erodible rocks and unstable cliffs should be carried out, in light of expected SLR and increased wave action."

While this study was informative, what we really need is an easily-adoptable action plan that decides which of the numerous parameters discussed in this paper are most responsible for SLR and that states how to stop them. Perhaps that will be the next paper written by Collin and Melloul--keep your eyes peeled for it!